Track and Field Statistics in Philippines Sports
Article originally from 2013 during my 2-year service with the Philippines Sports Commission 2013-2015 as Research Assistant.
PSC Track and Field Statistics in Philippines Sport announced to Media (rev 1)
July 30, 2013
The well-research medal prediction that and shared with the media and other partners in government prevented us from making any unreasonable “fearless forecasts.”
It helped all parties, particularly the athletes, focus on the task without creating unachievable expectations that would pressure the athlete and the coach.
Above all, managing expectations requires trust and a good working relationship between the government as the funding agency and the NSA as the responsible party for the results.
There is no need to play the blame game.
There is no need to blame if all parties know the facts and accept them as a threat or an opportunity.
However, the athletes expected several unfair decisions against the Philippines and communicated to them to keep them motivated and realize the long-term goal.
I am also currently working with the PSC (Philippines Sports Commission) on preparing data/ranking lists on different sports.
With the information that will help aid the task force, coordinate with the NSA’s (National Sports Associations) regarding ‘Fair selection’ based on data.
Data for Track and Field
Already we have completed our data on Track and Field. However, the last major meet in Thailand will alter these results as the Best Thai athletes and many other prominent southeast Asian athletes have not raced yet.
For instance, based on statistics, we can win a possible 5 or 6 golds in Athletics at the SEA Games, all from Men’s Athletics.
At the Media Lunch on Monday, I was pressured to be called up the front by Chairman Garcia to answer some of the countries ‘major’ newspapers.
For instance, I have found some of the articles on the net, and I would like to credit my fellow writers for the write-ups. A surname is ‘Pirie,’ not ‘Perry, ‘ lol. It’s probably a difficult one to spell.
The Importance of Track Stats and Research in Philippine Sports
This year, I assisted the PSC with research and statistics regarding our athlete’s performances and a comparative study of the other SEA Asian Nations athletes we would be up against in the SEA Games.
In contrast, I was also asked to help predict the SEA Games medal count and the most likely athletes to land the sports medals.
Above all, please consider a statistician’s viewpoint is likely to be very different from a coach’s viewpoint.
While both are of respectable value.
For instance, we need to point out that sometimes coaches will give a much higher prediction of their own athletes to select the team or not demoralize the athlete’s morale.
In reality, a statistician has an unbiased view of the data as he goes on trends and patterns of what the athletes have already achieved against their opponents’ performance.
Whereas coaches are very driven to make sure their athlete can beat the opposition and has a deep focus towards this goal, and estimate what the athlete is capable of or what the coach wants the athlete to be capable of.
Things I accurately was able to predict
- In total, we would win 27-33 golds overall; we won 29 golds.
- Athletics would win 5-7 golds; we won 6 golds.
In conclusion, the Winning time in the Steeple Chase would be not faster than 9m00. And it would be one of our guys either Herrera or Ulboc. Ulboc won.
Above all, several experts doubted Ulboc had what it took after he timed 9m05, 9m24, and 9m33, which were inconsistent performances. Also, Data showed he had the fastest time clearly in South East Asia for 2013, so he just needed to piece together a good run.
However, surprisingly Ulboc winning time was 9m01 backing up my prediction.
Therefore experts thought this race was fast, like 8m50-8m55 winning time. However, I started as the field had only run 9m13 to 9m22. They did not have enough time to get faster than 9m00, and times would be around 9m00-9m09.
First to Fourth were 9m01, 9m02, 9m04, 9m09.
In conclusion, Eric Cray would win the 400 Hurdles.
After he stumbled at World Champs with 52.41, many track experts felt that Cray is out of the medals.
However, he failed to consider that Cray still had by far the best PB 50.46/50.74 (for the Philippines) than his track rivals.
Statistics in Philippines Sports Logic Prevails
By logic, I pointed out Cray would be more comfortable in this race as he had already beaten most of the guys he was running against.
In contrast, it was not just a relief that Cray, who I had helped connect to Philippine Athletics, won the gold, which he himself and I had been telling everyone for the whole year.
This was a boost for the success of the Fil-Heritage program.
Above all, Fil-am Jessica Barnard continued this success by adding the Bronze in the Women’s 3000m Steeple Chase and breaking the National Record (also guessed, although it was silver or bronze predict for Jessica).
Statistics in Philippines Sport The Men’s 4×400
The Men’s 4×400 in, OK, they were not sure as they held onto the gold. With Bagsit having to do a lot of work 5m down on the last leg. Also, they managed to pull off a win, being 2 seconds faster on paper than their Asian rivals.
Above all, I also anticipated that either Bagsit or Alejan would win the 400, and they would go one-two after they pulled it off in the Thailand Open, except for this time, Bagsit first and Alejan second.
In conclusion no Gold Medals for women in Track and Field. In contrast, we only had six women in the team; this is an area that we lacked.
This is an open letter to the POC Board and the PSC
in response to the above article from the
Philippine Journal would like to appeal after consulting members of the Philippines athletic community.
In regards to the inclusion of Bronze Medallists and the above athletes in the SEA Games.
As I have no experience with the other NSA Sports, I write about Track and Field’s reasoning for this sport.
While other sports surely e deserve an equal chance as well.
For instance, I do not know of these, so I will solely discuss Track and Field in this letter.
However, I do not wish to belittle or launch any attacks on anyone or any organization.
Above all, I am just concerned with the future of the sports development program and our National and future national athletes’ well-being.
Upon reading the article, I note that many sports have been cut from the SEA Games calendar of 2013.
However, to my knowledge, according to my sources who are in Track and Field management from other SEA Nations, Track and Field will still be a full schedule of events.
Reasons for allowing Bronze Medalist qualifiers and above to participate
Similarly, Swimming, Track, and Field boast the most available medals in any sport in the SEA Games. It has 46 golds in total (or 23 for men and women each). In total, this is 138 medals up for grabs. As it adds more medals to the SEA Games tally, it is a worthy investment.
- It is also seldom that an athlete will win a Gold Medal in their first SEA Games. For instance, Marestella Torres played second fiddle to Lerma Buluitan Gabito, winning a silver in 2003. But then went on to win four SEA Games titles).
- Above all, Emerging Athletes that hit the bronze standard must develop into future champions and add to the gold count for 2015.
- In conclusion, If Emerging Athletes are not selected for the SEA Games, they might become disillusioned and decide to leave the sports, meaning our medal count for 2015 (including possible golds) could be lowered.
- However, as a lot of our National Athletes are already 30+, encouragement for younger athletes. For instance, who can get Bronze and Silver medals is required to ensure a continued flow of future champions to succeed and continue our SEA Games Veterans who have made the country proud?
3. However, there has been a big improvement this year with a performance from the NSA, with Three National records (a fourth one to be ratified) and Three Junior National records (a fourth one to be ratified) so far in 2013.
4. In contrast, athletes are showing commitment and determination to represent the country and make the SEA Games Bronze medal performance by paying for overseas trips to self-fund; many of these athletes are exhausting personal funds to do so. For some athletes, this may not be a sustainable option.
5. Above all, it’s possible the SEA Games Gold medal standard may have weakened in some events. While undoubtedly, in some events, it may have grown stronger. This can be due to the Champion of an event retiring or declining in performance.
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Andrew was elected Vice President of the Association of Track and Field Statisticians in 2020 after being a member for 7 years.
He has worked as a PSC Consultant and Research Assistant from 2013-2015, Consultant, and Sprint Coach at Zamboanga Sports Academy from 2015-2017.
Current editor and chief of Pinoyathletics.info, and has recently done consultancy work for Ayala Corp evaluating the Track and Field Program.
Coaches Sprints, Middle and Jump events he is working towards his Level 3 Athletics Australia Coaching Certification in Sprints and Hurdles.
He can be contacted on [email protected]
You can find more information on Coaching here