Statistics in Philippines Sport Article originally from 2013 during my 2-year service with the Philippines Sports Commission 2013-2015 as Research Assistant
PSC Statistics in Philippines Sport announced to Media (rev 1)
July 30, 2013
The well-research medal prediction that was shared with the media and other partners in government prevented us from making any unreasonable “fearless forecasts”. It helped all parties particularly the athletes focus on the task at hand and not create un-achievable expectations that would add pressure to the athlete and the coach.
Above all managing expectations requires trust and a good working relationship between the government as the funding agency and the NSA as the responsible party for the results.
There is no need to play the blame game
There is no need to play the blame game if all parties are aware of the facts and accept them as a threat or an opportunity. However there were several unfair decisions against the Philippines, it was expected by the athletes and communicated to them in a manner that kept them motivated and made them realize the long-term goal.
In addition, I am currently in the Philippines working with the PSC (Philippines Sports Commission) on preparing data/ranking lists on different sports. With the information that will help aid the task-force coordinate with the NSA’s (National Sports Associations) in regards to ‘Fair selection’ based on data.
Data for Track and Field
Already we have completed our data on Track and Field, however, the last major meet in Thailand will alter these results as the Best Thai athletes and a lot of other prominent southeast Asian athletes have not raced yet.
For instance, based on statistics we can win a possible 5 or 6 golds in Athletics at the SEA Games all from Men’s Athletics.
At the Media Lunch on Monday I had the pressure of being called up the front by Chairman Garcia to answer questions by some of the countries ‘major’ newspapers. For instance, these are some of the articles I have found on the net and would like to give credit to my fellow writers for the write-ups. A surname is ‘Pirie’ not ‘Perry’ lol. It’s probably a difficult one to spell.
The Importance of Stats and Research in Philippine Sports
In addition this year I assisted the PSC with research and statistics in regards to our athlete’s performances and a comparative study of the athletes from the other SEA Asian Nations that we would be up against in the SEA Games. In contrast I was also asked to help predict the SEA Games medal count and athletes who were most likely to land the medals in which sports.
Above all please take into account a statistician viewpoint is likely to be very different from a coach’s viewpoint. While both are of respectable value. For instance, we need to point out that sometimes coaches will give a much higher prediction of their own athletes in order to gain them selection into the team or to not demoralize the morale of the athlete.
In reality, a statistician has an unbiased view towards the data as he simply goes on trends and patterns of what the athletes have already achieved against the performance of their opponents. Whereas coaches are very driven to make sure his/her athlete is able to beat the opposition and has a deep focus towards this goal, and estimate what the athlete is capable of or what the coach wants the athlete to be capable of.
Things I accurately was able to predict
- In total we would win 27-33 golds overall, we won 29 golds
- Athletics would win 5-7 golds, we won 6 golds
Statistics in Philippines Sport ATHLETIC PREDICTIONS
In conclusion, the Winning time in the Steeple Chase would be not faster than 9m00. And it would be one of our guys either Herrera or Ulboc. Ulboc won.
Above all several experts doubted Ulboc had what it took after he timed 9m05, 9m24, and 9m33 which were inconsistent performances. In addition, Data showed he had the fastest time clearly in South East Asia for 2013 so he just needed to piece together a good run. However surprisingly Ulboc winning time was 9m01 backing up my prediction.
Therefore experts thought this race was fast like 8m50-8m55 winning time. However, I stated as the field had only run 9m13 to 9m22 they did not have enough time to get faster than 9m00, and times would be around 9m00-9m09. First to Fourth were 9m01, 9m02, 9m04, 9m09.
In conclusion, Eric Cray would win the 400 Hurdles. After he stumbled at World Champs with 52.41 a lot of track experts felt that Cray is out of the medals. However, he failed to take into account that Cray still had by far the best PB 50.46/50.74 (for the Philippines) than his track rivals.
Statistics in Philippines Sport Logic Prevails
By logic I pointed out Cray would be more comfortable in this race as he had already beaten most of the guys he was running against. In contrast, it was not just a relief to me, that Cray who I had helped connect to Philippine Athletics won the gold which he himself and I had been telling everyone for the whole year. This was a boost for the success of the Fil-Heritage program.
Above all Fil-am Jessica Barnard continued this success by adding the Bronze in the Women’s 3000m Steeple Chase and breaking the National Record (also guessed although it was silver or bronze predict for Jessica).
Statistics in Philippines Sport The Men’s 4×400
The Men’s 4×400 in, OK they were not a sure thing as they held onto the gold. With Bagsit having to do a lot of work 5m down on the last leg. In addition, they managed to pull off a win being 2 seconds faster on paper than their Asian rivals. Above all, I also anticipated that either Bagsit or Alejan would win the 400 and they would go one-two after they pulled it off in the Thailand Open except for this time it was Bagsit first and Alejan second.
In conclusion no Gold Medals for women’s in Track and Field. In contrast, we only had six women in the team, this is an area that we lacked in. Several of our female athletes had been removed by the task force Mary Grace Delos Santos, Jessa Mangsat, Josie Malacad, Griffey and the Richardson twins. Providing Opportunities for Future Champions
This is an open letter to the POC Board and the PSC
in response to the above article from the
Philippine Journal would like to appeal after consulting members of the Philippines athletic community. In regards to the inclusion of Bronze Medallists and the above athletes in the SEA Games. As I have no experience with the other NSA Sports I just write in regards to Track and Field presenting reasoning for this sport. While other sports surely e deserve an equal chance as well. For instance, I have no knowledge of these so I will just be solely discussing Track and Field in this letter.
However, I do not wish to belittle or launch any attacks on anyone or any organization. Above all, I just am concerned with the future of the sports development program and the well-being of our National and future national athletes.
Upon reading the article I note that the concern is a lot of sports have been cut from the SEA Games calendar of 2013. However to my knowledge according to my sources who are in Track and Field management from other SEA Nations Track and Field will still be a full schedule of events.
Reasons for allowing Bronze Medalist qualifiers and above to participate
- Similarly, with Swimming, Track and Field boast the most number of available medals in any sport in the SEA Games. It has 46 golds in total (or 23 for men and women each). In total, this is 138 medals up for grabs. As it adds more medals to the SEA Games tally it is a worthy investment.
- In addition, It is very seldom that an athlete will win a Gold Medal in their first SEA Games. For instance, Marestella Torres played second fiddle to Lerma Buluitan Gabito winning a silver in 2003. But then went on to win four SEA Games titles).
- Above all Emerging Athletes that hit the bronze standard must be given the opportunity to perform will develop into future champions and add to the gold count for 2015.
- In conclusion, If Emerging Athletes are not selected for the SEA Games they might become disillusioned and decide to leave the sports meaning are medal count for 2015 (including possible golds) could be lowered.
- However, as a lot of our National Athletes are already 30+, encouragement for younger athletes. For instance, who are able to get Bronze and Silver medals is required to ensure a continued flow of future champions to succeed and continue the legacy of our SEA Games Veterans who have done the country proud.
3. However there has been a serious improvement this year with a performance from the NSA, with Three National records (a fourth one to be ratified), and Three Junior National records (a fourth one to be ratified) so far in 2013.
4. In contrast, athletes are showing commitment and determination to represent the country and make the SEA Games Bronze medal performance by paying for overseas trips to self-fund a lot of these athletes are exhausting personal funds to do so. For some athletes, this may not be a sustainable option.
5. Above all In some events, it’s possible the SEA Games Gold medal standard may have weakened. While undoubtedly in some events it may have grown stronger. This can be due to the Champion of an event retiring or declining in performance.
Torres, 20 other PH hopefuls dropped from PSC priority athlete list From the Manila Bulletin
More than 20 national athletes, including two-time Olympian and reigning Southeast Asian long jump queen Marestella Torres, have been removed by Philippine Sports Commission (PSC) in the list of priority athletes for different reasons.
Above all most of the athletes, including four cyclists, were dropped from the list for failing to compete in the recent Philippine National Games.
Andrew is an ATFS Statiscian in Athletics with a wide range of knowledge in measurable sports. He has worked as a PSC Consultant and Research Assistant from 2013-2015, Consultant and Sprint Coach at Zamboanga Sports Academy from 2015-2017. And is current editor and chief of Pinoyathletics.info, and has recently done consultancy work for Ayala Corp evaluating the Track and Field Program. Currently, he is coaches Sprints, Middle and Jump events he is working towards his Level 3 Athletics Australia Coaching Certification in Sprints and Hurdles.
He can be contacted on [email protected]